Abstracts submitted by Arik Posner
Implementation of radiation storm forecasting with SOHO/COSTEP and adjustments to the solar minimum
A. Posner [1]; B. Heber [2]; R. Mueller-Mellin [2]
[1] Southwest Research Institute, San Antonio, TX, USA; [2] University of Kiel, Kiel, Germany
A method of forecasting the intensity of prompt solar energetic protons with relativistic electrons has been developed and successfully tested for 2003. It has been shown that such forecasting is urgently needed for radiation protection of humans and technology in space. The method utilizes the speed advantage of relativistic electrons over 30-50 MeV protons and newly discovered correlations of inverse rise time and intensity between the two particle species. The main strength of this method over all other forecasting attempts is that electrons and ions move along near-identical transport conditions in the ever-changing inner heliosphere. The purpose of this presentation is to inform of forecasting attempts in the 2004-2007 solar minimum period with its unusually high occurrence frequency of major radiation storms, and to give an update on the implementation of the method with the SOHO/COSTEP team and the SOHO project. |
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